Run a prediction market that actually makes money

The fee monetizes retail round-trip flow, and nothing else — informed flow is fee-immune by construction and causes all the inventory loss. So: order book first for the head markets (flow capture, zero inventory risk), the AMM as your cold-start machine for the long tail (seed = paid marketing with a measurable cost), and a true AMM profit center in exactly one niche: high-churn contested sports and news.

How the money flows

Your pool holds both YES and NO inventory, and every trade executes against it. Noise traders buy and sell back — price-neutral, they just leave fees behind. That is your revenue. Informed traders buy the side that wins and hold it to resolution — the pool ends up stuck with the losing side, and that inventory going to zero is your loss.

"List what noise traders love, refuse what informed traders love, cap every correlated cluster, keep half your bankroll out of the pools."

01Catalog & Launch

Count is sports, money is politics — and your P&L is decided by ~10 head events. The catalog is a barbell of roughly 120 markets: a thin head that carries the P&L, and a long tail that exists to fill the board and cold-start liquidity.

Tier	Markets	What	Seed each	Fee
A — heads	8–10	Marquee sports, 2 contested politics (p̄ 0.55–0.8), 1–2 crypto monthlies	$2.5–4k	150–200 bps
B — mid	30–40	Next-tier fixtures, secondary news	$500–800	200 bps
C — tail	70–80	Board filler (median sports event ≈ $7.4k lifetime volume)	$0–150 or book-only	300 bps

Demand mechanics — manufacture the round trip. A round trip is a buy followed by a sell. It doesn't move the price and causes no convergence loss — it just leaves you two fees. So the operating goal is to get users trading back and forth, not betting once and waiting. In practice:

Open markets on the rhythm of live sports. Prices keep moving during a game, so users add and trim positions repeatedly — every adjustment is a fee.
Make the cash-out button prominent. Without it, a user buys once and waits for resolution — one fee. With an easy way to sell at any time, a one-way bet becomes a round trip that pays a fee on each side.
Rank the weekly leaderboard by return percentage, not profit. Ranking by dollars only rewards whales; ranking by percentage gives small accounts a reason to keep trading for position.
Make sign-up credit withdrawable only after 5× wagering. A user has to put the credit through five times its value in trades before cashing it out — the marketing spend converts directly into guaranteed volume.
Gate community market requests on pre-committed demand. List a requested market only once enough users have clearly said they'll trade it, so you don't open markets nobody plays.

Kill criteria

Day 0 = platform launch. Set these checkpoints before you open, so the pull-or-delist call is a rule you execute, not a debate you have:

Day 30 — activity floor. Tier A sports must do at least 8× turnover per weekly cycle. Any tail market below 1× for two cycles in a row loses its seed: withdraw it and go book-only, or delist the market entirely — it isn't earning fees, it's just locking seed.
Day 60 — flow balance. If more than 70% of a category's flow runs in one direction — nearly every fill in the category is buying the same side — pull the AMM seed from the whole category (order-book trading can stay). One-sided flow means you're not collecting round-trip fees; you're taking the other side of informed bets.
Day 90 — go / no-go. Sports must be profitable under both outcomes at 150–200 bps. If the structurally safest category can't clear that, the problem isn't your parameters — the audience isn't there, and more capital only scales the loss.

02Capital & Market-Making

"Opening price is the most-resourced function. A 0.30 open resolving toward 0.85 burns 53.5% of seed."

Routing. Send each market to the venue that fits it. Contested retail markets (p̄ ≤ 0.8) and the whole long tail run on the AMM, where always-on liquidity matters most. Anything decisive (p̄ ≥ 0.9) or insider-prone goes book-only, so informed flow hits other traders' quotes instead of your pool. Head markets run both: a thin AMM keeps the market tradeable at all times, and a quoting bot inside its spread captures most of the flow without inventory risk.
Seeding. Size the seed at 0.5–1× expected daily volume, with a floor of 10–20× the typical trade size so one order can't shove the price around. Add more only after the market has turned over at least 1× per day for 3 straight days — demonstrated demand, not hoped-for demand. Never grow the pool past 1× daily volume: every extra dollar of seed is an extra dollar exposed to convergence.
Withdrawal. Pulling liquidity only stops future convergence — whatever the pool has already lost is sunk, so don't pull to "save" a loss that already happened. Automate the trigger in your own monitoring tooling (the contract has no built-in auto-pull): pull when your forecast of the final price sits more than 15 points from the current price. On a $10k pool at 0.70 with news pointing to 0.95, pulling saves ~$4,800 of future loss and gives up only ~$45 of fees.
Opening price. Anchor every open to de-vigged external odds, and have your own deploy script block the launch if |p₀ − reference| is more than 5 pts apart (this check is yours to build — not a product feature). If no anchor exists, run the market book-only for 24–48h and let trading discover the price before any seed goes in. Always deploy a 10–20% probe tranche before the full amount, and scan the news within 15 minutes of seeding — the cheapest insurance against opening into a story you missed.
Dead time. After the market ends (the event is decided and trading stops) and before the oracle pays out, the money stays locked but earns nothing, so all hurdle math uses duration + oracle window — on a 7-day market the extra 2–5 locked days (typical range; disputes extend it) cut ROI by about 30%. Stagger seeding across the week so redemptions come back daily instead of in one lump, and keep a 15–20% liquid buffer for the gaps.

03Risk Rules

Ranked by what actually kills operators, not by how often the textbook mentions them.

Adverse selection. Screen every listing with five questions. Is the outcome generated by a process, not decided behind closed doors by fewer than 20 people? Is there no one who plausibly knows the answer more than 24h early? Does a public, continuously-updating signal exist? Is p̄ ≤ 0.9 at a 2% fee? Is projected lifetime turnover at least 2× breakeven? (This is the stricter of the two turnover gates — the adverse-selection screen demands more margin than the basic 1.5× seeding bar.) A single "no" means list it without seeding (book-only), or don't list it at all. Personnel decisions, single-company announcements and niche esports fail this screen by nature — they never get AMM seed.
Correlation. Markets that hang on the same event are one cluster: the same league in the same week, the same election, the same asset. Cap each cluster at 10% of bankroll and each category at 25%, because correlated markets win and lose together. When you measure diversification, count clusters, not markets.
Resolution. Use the wording template on every market — source, timestamp, tiebreak and postponement clauses, fixed before listing. Only run markets where the oracle bond plus gas comes to less than 5% of seed; above that, resolution costs eat the economics. Hold a dispute reserve of 2× bonds outstanding. And propose resolution yourself at T+0, so the market settles on your wording rather than someone else's.
Bankroll. When favorites come through, every market loses a little — the occasional upset is what funds the book. So never deploy more than 50% of bankroll at once, cap any single market at 2%, and size the whole operation to survive three consecutive zero-upset months, which costs about −22% of bankroll. If that drawdown would kill you, the book is too big.
Ops. The deploy script asserts the fee is one of {100, 150, 200, 300} bps, so a typo can't ship a broken rate. Read the on-chain config back before announcing anything — trust the chain, not the deploy log. And never hike fees mid-life: the damage outweighs what you collect by about 53:1.
Abuse. Cap rewards at 50% of the net fees an address actually paid in the epoch, so nobody can farm out more in incentives than they hand you in fees. And exclude incentive-driven volume from the turnover stats you seed against — wash flow is statistically identical to profitable noise, and seeding against it means seeding against a mirage.

04The Business Model

"Points and token value aren't revenue — they're deferred dilution buying turnover."

Revenue lines, ranked. Six places the money comes from, in order of quality:

① Book taker fees. 50–100 bps on every taker fill, with zero inventory risk — this is the line that scales.
② AMM LP margin. Real only in the contested, high-churn band; everywhere else convergence loss eats it.
③ Withdrawal (cash-out-to-wallet) fee. Charged when users move funds back to their wallet — distinct from the AMM's sell-side trading fee. Riskless, but small.
④ B2B sublicensing. Selling the operating playbook to other operators — but only once your own book prints. Nobody buys a playbook that hasn't worked.
⑤ Sponsorships. Real money when it lands, but lumpy — don't budget around it.
⑥ Points and token value — not revenue. They buy today's turnover and pay for it later in dilution.

Seeding KPIs. Five numbers gate the AMM seed — listing on the frontend is a separate decision:

Projected lifetime turnover ≥ 1.5× breakeven. The basic seeding bar: a market that only just covers its own losses doesn't get seeded. Markets that trip the adverse-selection screen face the stricter 2× gate instead.
Fee capture ≥ 0.6·f·T̂. Realized fees must reach at least 0.6 of the theoretical fee rate times expected turnover. Below that, the volume isn't real or the fee isn't sticking.
Annualized ROI ≥ 30%, including the settlement gap. Count the locked oracle-window days in the denominator — a market that only clears the bar by ignoring dead time doesn't actually clear it.
Seed / daily volume ≤ 1×. If the pool is bigger than a day of volume, you've overseeded: the excess sits exposed to convergence without earning.
Category loss ratio < 0.6. Convergence loss divided by fee revenue, per category. Above that line, the category pays informed traders faster than it collects from noise.

Year-one calls. Three decisions, made up front:

Order book first, AMM as feeder. At median turnover the AMM barely breaks even outside contested sports; inventory-free flow capture is what scales.
2% AMM flat at creation, sub-1% book taker. A 1% AMM fee needs more turnover than most markets ever produce; 2% covers the markets you'll actually run.
Sports for count, politics for money — skip crypto price targets in year one. Crypto targets break even on average at best, and every crypto market hangs off the same chart, so listing more of them adds no diversification.

手续费赚的是散户往返交易的钱，仅此而已——知情交易者（聪明钱）按机制几乎不缴费（买入腿费率随价格趋零），库存亏损却全是他们造成的。所以：头部市场订单簿优先，吃流量，零库存风险；AMM 用来给长尾冷启动，初始流动性当付费获客记账，成本算得清；AMM 自己赚钱的市场只有一种——高换手、胜负胶着的体育和新闻。

钱是怎么流的

你的池子同时握着 YES 和 NO 两边的库存，谁来交易都是跟池子成交。噪声交易者买了又卖，价格没动，手续费留下了——这是你的收入。知情交易者只买会赢的那边，一直拿到判定——池子手里剩下输的那边，归零，这就是你的亏损。

"噪声交易者爱的市场，上；知情者占优的市场，拒。每个相关性 cluster 设上限，总资金永远留一半在池外。"

01市场目录与冷启动

走量靠体育，走钱靠政治，但盈亏是 ~10 个头部事件定的。目录摆成杠铃：约 120 个市场，薄薄一层头部扛起全部盈亏，长尾负责填满版面、把流动性带起来。

层级	数量	内容	单市场初始流动性	费率
A — 头部	8–10	当周焦点赛事、2 个胶着政治市场（p̄ 0.55–0.8）、1–2 个加密月度市场	$2.5–4k	150–200 bps
B — 中部	30–40	次级赛事、二线新闻	$500–800	200 bps
C — 长尾	70–80	版面填充（体育长尾市场整个生命周期成交中位数仅 ≈ $7.4k）	$0–150 或纯订单簿	300 bps

需求侧：制造往返交易。往返交易就是用户买入之后再卖出。这种交易不推动价格、不带来收敛损失，留给你的是买卖各一笔手续费——所以运营的重点是让用户多做往返，而不是押一注等开奖。具体做法：

跟着体育直播的节奏开市场。比赛进行中价格一直在变，用户会反复加仓、减仓，每一次操作都是一笔手续费。
把提前平仓（cash-out）按钮放在显眼位置。用户本来买完只能等判定，全程只缴一次费；有了随时卖出的入口，一次单程下注就变成买、卖各缴一次费的往返交易。
周排行榜按收益率排名，不按盈利金额。按金额排只有大户能上榜；按收益率排，小资金的用户也有动力反复交易去刷名次。
注册赠金要求 5 倍流水才能提现。用户拿到赠金后，要先做满赠金 5 倍的交易量才能取走——这笔营销费直接换成了确定的交易量。
社区请求上线的市场，先看到预承诺的需求再接。比如有足够多的用户明确说会来交易，再上线，避免开出来没人玩的市场。

关停标准

以平台开业日为第 0 天。三个检查点开业前就定死，到点照规则执行（撤出流动性还是彻底下架，都按规则来），不用临场争论：

第 30 天：活跃度下限。A 层体育每周换手必须 ≥ 8×。长尾市场连续两个周期不到 1×，撤出 AMM 流动性——转纯订单簿，或彻底下架。它赚不到手续费，只是把你的初始流动性锁在里面。
第 60 天：流向体检。哪个类别的单向流占比超过 70%——也就是这个类别里几乎所有成交都在买同一边——整类撤出 AMM 流动性（保留订单簿交易）。流量一边倒，说明你收不到往返手续费，只是在给知情下注当对手盘。
第 90 天：去留判断。体育必须在两种结局下都赚钱（150–200 bps）。连结构上最安全的类别都打不平，问题就不在参数——是没人来玩，再加钱只是把亏损放大。

02资金与做市

"开盘定价最值得花资源。0.30 开盘、最后收敛到 0.85，烧掉 53.5% 的初始流动性。"

分流。每个市场送去适合它的场地。胜负胶着的散户市场（p̄ ≤ 0.8）和整条长尾走 AMM——这类市场最需要随时有价。大局已定（p̄ ≥ 0.9）或内幕风险高的只上订单簿，让知情资金去吃别的交易者的挂单，而不是你的池子。头部市场两边都开：薄薄一层 AMM 保证随时可交易，报价 bot 在价差里挂单，吃下大部分流量又不背库存风险。
注入流动性。初始流动性按预期日成交量的 0.5–1 倍配，下限是单笔典型交易的 10–20 倍——免得一笔单子就把价格打飞。追加要等市场连续 3 天日换手 ≥ 1×，也就是看到真实需求再加，而不是凭期待加。流动性池最多加到 1× 日成交量：多注一块钱，就多一块钱暴露在收敛亏损里。
撤出流动性。它只救得了未来的收敛——已经亏掉的是沉没成本，别为"挽回"已发生的亏损去撤。在你自己的部署 / 监控脚本里做成自动触发（合约没有内置的自动撤出）：预测终价和现价差超过 15 点就撤。$10k 的池子价格在 0.70、新闻已经指向 0.95，这时撤出省下 ~$4,800 的未来亏损，放弃的只有 ~$45 的手续费。
开盘定价。每个开盘价都锚定去水后的外部赔率，在你自己的部署脚本里加拦截：|p₀ − 参考| 差超过 5 点就不许上线（这道检查要你自己建，不是产品功能）。找不到外部锚，就先只开订单簿跑 24–48h，让交易自己把价格走出来，再注入初始流动性。全量注入前永远先放 10–20% 的试探性流动性试水；注入前 15 分钟内把新闻扫一遍——这是防止开盘踩进突发消息最便宜的保险。
死区时间。市场到期（事件结果出来、交易停止）后、预言机赔付前，钱锁着却一分不赚，所以回报门槛一律按实际周期 = 市场时长 + 预言机判定窗口算——7 天的市场多锁 2–5 天（经验值，视预言机有无争议而定），ROI 直接打 7 折。流动性注入在一周内错开，让兑换的钱每天回笼，而不是挤在同一天；手里再留 15–20% 的流动缓冲。

03风控铁律

按真实杀伤力排，不按教科书提到的次数排。

逆向选择。每个市场上架前过五个问题。结果是公开流程跑出来的，还是 < 20 个人关起门定的？有没有人能提前 24h 知道答案？有没有公开、持续更新的信号？2% 费率下 p̄ ≤ 0.9 吗？预期换手（生命周期口径）够不够 2× 保本线？（这是两道换手门槛里更严的一道——内幕风险筛查要求的安全边际，高于添加流动性的 1.5× 基本线。）只要有一条是"否"，就只上架不添加流动性（纯订单簿），或者干脆不上架。人事任命、单公司公告、小众电竞，天生过不了这套筛——永远不给 AMM 初始流动性。
相关性。结果系在同一个事件上的市场算一个 cluster：同联赛同一周、同一场选举、同一个标的。单 cluster 不超过总资金 10%，单类别不超过 25%——因为相关的市场会一起赢、一起输。算分散度的时候，数 cluster，别数市场。
判定。每个市场都用措辞模板：数据源、时间戳、平局条款、延期条款，上架前写死。预言机保证金加 gas 超过初始流动性 5% 的市场不开——判定成本会把账吃掉。争议准备金备到在外保证金的 2 倍。自己注入流动性的市场，T+0 第一个把判定提议交上去，让市场按你写的条款落地，而不是别人写的。
资金。热门如期兑现的市场个个小亏，利润靠偶尔的爆冷补回来。所以：同一时间最多 50% 投入流动性池；单市场不超过总资金 2%；总规模按"连吃三个月零爆冷（约亏掉总资金的 22%）还活着"来配——这个回撤要是会要你的命，说明摊子铺大了。
操作。部署脚本里断言费率 ∈ {100, 150, 200, 300} bps，手滑打错也上不了线。公告之前把链上配置回读一遍——信链，别信部署日志。费率绝不中途上调：造成的伤害和多收的钱大约是 53:1，纯自伤。
刷量。单地址单周期能拿的奖励，不超过它净缴手续费的 50%，谁也别想薅走的比交上来的多。激励刷出来的量，一律不进流动性决策用的换手统计——对敲量在数据上和真赚钱的噪声流长得一模一样，照着它添加流动性，等于照着海市蜃楼配资金。

04商业模型

"积分和代币价值不是收入，是用递延稀释买换手。"

收入线排序。钱从六个地方来，按质量排：

① 订单簿 taker 费。每笔吃单收 50–100 bps，零库存风险——唯一能上规模的一条。
② AMM 做市利润。只在胜负胶着、高换手那一段是真的；其他区间会被收敛损失吃掉。
③ 出金手续费。用户把钱提回钱包时收的，和 AMM 卖出腿的交易手续费是两回事。没有风险，但量小。
④ B2B 转授权。把这套打法卖给其他运营方——前提是你自己的账先打正。没人买一套没跑通的打法。
⑤ 赞助。来了是真钱，但有一搭没一搭，别拿它做预算。
⑥ 积分 / 代币价值——不是收入。先用代币买来今天的换手，将来拿稀释去还。

添加流动性 KPI。这五个数字决定的是给不给 AMM 初始流动性——上架到前端是另一个决定：

预期换手（生命周期口径）≥ 1.5× 保本线。这是添加流动性的基本门槛：刚好够保本的市场不值得投入。触发逆向选择筛查的市场，适用的是更严的 2× 那道门。
费用捕获 ≥ 0.6·f·T̂。实际收到的手续费，至少要达到理论值（费率 × 预期换手）的 0.6。低于这个数，说明量是假的，或者费没收上来。
含判定窗口的年化 ≥ 30%。锁在预言机窗口里的天数也要算进分母——靠忽略死区时间才过线的市场，实际上没过线。
初始流动性 / 日成交 ≤ 1×。流动性池比一天的成交量还大，就是注多了：多出来的钱光挨收敛、不产出。
类别亏损率 < 0.6。按类别算收敛损失 ÷ 手续费收入。超过这条线，这个类别给知情交易者送钱的速度，已经快过从噪声那里收钱的速度。

第一年的三个决定。三件事，开局就定：

订单簿优先，AMM 做导流。换手在中位数水平时，AMM 在胶着体育之外基本只能打平；能上规模的是零库存的流量生意。
AMM 固定 2%，订单簿 taker < 1%。1% 的 AMM 费率需要的换手量，大多数市场一辈子都跑不出来；2% 才盖得住你实际会开的市场。
体育走量、政治走钱，第一年别碰币价市场。币价市场期望顶多打平，而且全都挂在同一条行情线上，开再多也是一个 cluster，分散不了风险。

Market state	Visible on frontend	AMM seeded	Tradeable
Listed (book-only)	✓	✗	✓ order book
Seeded	✓	✓	✓ AMM + order book
Seed pulled (one market)	✓	✗	✓ order book only
Category-wide pull	✓	✗	✓ order book only
Delisted entirely	✗	✗	✗
Market ended	✓	✓ (locked until resolution)	✗
Resolved	✓	✗ (redeemed)	✗ (positions redeem instead)

市场状态	前端可见	AMM 有流动性	可交易
上架（纯订单簿）	✓	✗	✓ 订单簿
已添加流动性	✓	✓	✓ AMM + 订单簿
撤出流动性（单市场）	✓	✗	✓ 仅订单簿
整类撤出流动性	✓	✗	✓ 仅订单簿
彻底下架	✗	✗	✗
市场到期	✓	✓（锁定至判定）	✗
判定完成	✓	✗（已兑换取回）	✗（持仓走兑换）

Run a prediction market that actually makes money.

把预测市场做成真正赚钱的生意。

Start here

The Operator's Doctrine

运营总纲

All lessons

The APMM Calculator

APMM 计算器

Catalog & Launch

市场目录与冷启动

Capital & Market-Making

资金与做市

Risk Rules

风控铁律

The Business Model

商业模型

The Operator's Doctrine

运营总纲

01Catalog & Launch

02Capital & Market-Making

03Risk Rules

04The Business Model

01市场目录与冷启动

02资金与做市

03风控铁律

04商业模型

The APMM Calculator

APMM 计算器

Parameters

Results

Cumulative P&L over the trading window

Net P&L vs terminal price

Glossary

术语表

AMM (Automated Market Maker)AMM（自动做市商）

Adverse selection逆向选择

Annualized ROI年化回报

Bankroll总资金

Barbell catalog杠铃式目录

Basis points (bps)基点（bps）

Breakeven turnover保本换手率

Cash-out提前平仓

Cluster (correlation)相关性 cluster

Convergence loss收敛损失

Dead time死区时间

De-vigged odds去水赔率

Fee capture费用捕获

Fee switch费率切换

Head market头部市场

Hurdle rate门槛收益率

Informed flow知情流（聪明钱）

Kill criteria关停标准

Long tail长尾

Noise flow噪声流（噪声交易者）

Opening price (p₀)开盘价（p₀）

Oracle预言机

Order book订单簿

Probe tranche试探性流动性（probe tranche）

Resolution判定

Round trip往返交易

Seed liquidity初始流动性（seed liquidity）

Terminal price (p̄)终价（p̄）

Turnover换手率

Wash trading刷量

Withdrawal trigger撤出流动性触发

AMM (Automated Market Maker)

Adverse selection

Annualized ROI

Bankroll

Barbell catalog

Basis points (bps)

Breakeven turnover

Cash-out

Cluster (correlation)

Convergence loss

Dead time

De-vigged odds

Fee capture

Fee switch

Head market

Hurdle rate

Informed flow

Kill criteria

Long tail

Noise flow

Opening price (p₀)

Oracle

Order book

Probe tranche

Resolution

Round trip

Seed liquidity

Terminal price (p̄)

Turnover

Wash trading

Withdrawal trigger