PrometheX Academy
A practical operator's field guide to AMM prediction markets: what to list, how to seed, when to pull liquidity, and the one place an AMM is a genuine profit center. Read the playbook — then model your own market.
AMM 预测市场的运营实战手册：上什么盘、怎么铺仓、何时撤池，以及 AMM 唯一真正赚钱的场景。读完手册，再用计算器测算你自己的盘。
One rule decides everything: the fee earns from retail round-trips and nothing else. So you run the book on the heads, the AMM as a cold-start engine for the tail, and a real profit center in exactly one niche. Catalog, capital, risk and the business — four chapters.
一条规则决定一切：手续费只赚散户往返流的钱。所以头部用订单簿、AMM 做长尾的冷启动引擎，利润中心只押一个场景。目录、资金、风控、商业模型——四章讲透。
Model operator P&L for any market: seed, window, terminal price, turnover and fee. See fees, convergence loss, net result and breakeven turnover update live.
测算任意市场的运营盈亏：种子、周期、终价、换手与费率。手续费、收敛损失、净结果与保本换手率实时更新。
Count is sports, money is politics. A barbell catalog of ~120 markets, demand mechanics that manufacture the round trip, and hard kill criteria at days 30 / 60 / 90.
数量在体育，金额在政治。约 120 个市场的杠铃目录、制造往返交易的需求设计，以及第 30 / 60 / 90 天的关停铁律。
Routing by contestedness, seeding to expected volume, withdrawal that stops future loss, and the single most-resourced function: opening price.
按胶着程度路由、按预期量铺仓、撤池只为阻止未来亏损，以及投入最重的职能：开盘定价。
Six rules ranked by what actually kills operators — adverse selection, correlation, resolution, bankroll, ops and abuse. Diversification counts clusters, not markets.
按杀伤力排序的六条铁律——逆向选择、相关性、结算、资金、操作与刷量。分散度按 cluster 数而非市场数计。
Revenue lines ranked, the KPIs that gate every listing, and the three year-one calls: book-first, fee structure, and which categories to actually back.
收入线排序、决定每次上架的 KPI，以及第一年的三个决策：订单簿优先、费率结构、到底押哪些类别。
The one-paragraph thesis the whole playbook hangs on: who you actually earn from, who you must refuse, and where the only real AMM profit center lives.
整本手册的一段式核心：你到底从谁身上赚钱、必须拒绝谁，以及 AMM 唯一真正的利润中心在哪。
Where an AMM makes money, where it loses it, and the operating rules that keep you on the right side.
AMM 在哪里赚钱、在哪里亏钱，以及让你站对一边的运营规则。
The fee monetizes retail round-trip flow and nothing else — informed flow is fee-immune by construction and causes all the inventory loss. So: order book first for the head markets (flow capture, zero inventory risk), the AMM as the cold-start machine for the long tail (seed = paid marketing with a measurable cost), and a true AMM profit center in exactly one niche: high-churn contested sports and news.
Count is sports, money is politics, P&L is decided by ~10 head events. The catalog is a barbell of roughly 120 markets — a thin head that carries the P&L, and a long tail that exists to fill the board and cold-start liquidity.
| Tier | Markets | What | Seed each | Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A — heads | 8–10 | Marquee sports, 2 contested politics (p̄ 0.55–0.8), 1–2 crypto monthlies | $2.5–4k | 150–200 bps |
| B — mid | 30–40 | Next-tier fixtures, secondary news | $500–800 | 200 bps |
| C — tail | 70–80 | Board filler (median sports event ≈ $7.4k lifetime volume) | $0–150 or book-only | 300 bps |
Demand mechanics — manufacture the round trip. Live-sports cadence, a prominent cash-out button (turns one-way bets into fee-bearing round trips), weekly P&L-percentage leaderboards, sign-up credit withdrawable only after 5× wagering, and community market requests gated on pre-committed demand.
Day 30 — Tier A sports ≥ 8× turnover per weekly cycle; tail markets < 1× over two cycles get delisted. Day 60 — delist any category whose flow is > 70% one-directional. Day 90 — sports must be profitable in both outcomes at 150–200 bps, otherwise the audience isn't there and more capital only scales the loss.
Ranked by what actually kills operators, not by how often the textbook mentions them.
Revenue lines, ranked. ① Book taker fees (50–100 bps, zero inventory risk — the scalable line) ② AMM LP margin (real only in the contested high-churn band) ③ withdrawal skim ④ B2B sublicensing once the book prints ⑤ sponsorships ⑥ points / token value — not revenue.
KPIs. List only at projected turnover ≥ 1.5× breakeven; fee capture ≥ 0.6·f·T̂; annualized ROI ≥ 30% incl. settlement gap; seed / daily-volume ≤ 1×; category loss ratio < 0.6.
Year-one calls. Order-book-first with the AMM as feeder; 2% AMM flat at creation / sub-1% book taker; sports for count + politics for money, skip crypto price targets (breakeven mean, undiversifiable variance).
手续费只能赚到散户往返流的钱——知情资金按机制免费（买入腿费率随价格趋零），且造成全部库存亏损。所以：头部市场用订单簿吃流量（零库存风险）；AMM 是长尾目录的冷启动机器（种子按"付费获客"记账）；AMM 真正的利润中心只有一个：高换手的胶着体育与新闻盘。
数量在体育、金额在政治，损益由 ~10 个头部盘决定。目录是一个杠铃结构，约 120 个市场——撑起损益的薄头部，加上用来充实目录、冷启动流动性的长尾。
| 层级 | 数量 | 内容 | 单盘种子 | 费率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A — 头部 | 8–10 | 当周焦点赛事、2 个胶着政治盘（p̄ 0.55–0.8）、1–2 个加密月度盘 | $2.5–4k | 150–200 bps |
| B — 中部 | 30–40 | 次级赛事、二线新闻 | $500–800 | 200 bps |
| C — 长尾 | 70–80 | 充实目录（体育长尾中位生命周期交易量仅 ≈ $7.4k） | $0–150 或纯订单簿 | 300 bps |
需求侧——制造往返交易。体育直播节奏、显眼的提前结算（cash-out）按钮（把单程下注变成双程缴费）、按收益率排的周榜、注册金需 5 倍流水才可提，以及需先有预承诺需求才接受的社区点盘。
第 30 天——A 层体育周换手 ≥ 8×；长尾两个周期 < 1× 即下架。第 60 天——单向流占比 > 70% 的类别整类下架。第 90 天——体育盘必须在两种结局下都盈利（150–200 bps），否则不是参数问题而是没有观众，加钱只会放大亏损。
按真实杀伤力排序，而不是按教科书提及的频率排序。
收入线排序。① 订单簿 taker 费（50–100 bps，零库存风险，可规模化）② AMM 做市差（只在胶着高换手区间真实存在）③ 提现费 ④ 自营账本打正后的 B2B 转授权 ⑤ 赞助 ⑥ 积分 / 代币价值——不是收入。
上下架 KPI。预期换手 ≥ 1.5× 保本线才上 AMM；费用捕获 ≥ 0.6·f·T̂；含结算窗口的年化 ≥ 30%；种子 / 日交易量 ≤ 1×；类别亏损率 < 0.6。
第一年三个决策。订单簿优先、AMM 做喂给层；AMM 固定 2% / 订单簿 taker < 1%；体育撑数量 + 政治出金额，第一年跳过加密价格盘（期望打平且方差不可分散）。
Pick a scenario, then move the sliders. Everything from the playbook — fees, convergence loss, breakeven turnover — recalculates live.
选一个场景，然后拖动滑块。手册里讲的一切——手续费、收敛损失、保本换手率——实时重算。
Every term the playbook and calculator lean on, in one place.
手册与计算器用到的全部术语，集中在这里。
A pricing contract that quotes both sides of a market from a liquidity pool, so trades execute instantly against the pool instead of waiting for a counterparty.用流动性池对市场双边自动报价的合约，交易直接与池子成交，无需等待对手方。
Trading against counterparties who know more than the pool. In insider-prone markets, informed flow steadily extracts pool value.与比池子知道更多的人交易。在内幕型市场中，知情资金会持续抽走池子的价值。
Net profit scaled to a yearly rate on locked capital, including the oracle settlement window.按锁定资金折算成年化的净收益，计算时包含预言机结算窗口。
The operator's total capital across all markets. At most 50% is ever deployed into pools at once.运营者在所有市场上的全部可用资金。同时入池的部分永远不超过 50%。
A few heavily-seeded head markets plus a long tail of cheap board filler — and very little in between.少数重仓的头部盘，加上大量低成本的长尾充实盘——中间地带很少。
One hundredth of a percent — the unit fees are quoted in. 100 bps = 1%.百分之一的百分之一，即 0.01%；费率的计价单位，100 bps = 1%。
The daily noise volume, as a share of pool size, at which fees exactly cover convergence loss plus ops cost.手续费恰好覆盖收敛损失与运营成本时的日换手率（占池子规模的比例）。
Closing a position before resolution. Turns one-way bets into fee-paying round trips — a core demand mechanic.在结算前平仓。把单程下注变成缴两次费的往返交易——核心的需求侧设计。
Markets whose outcomes hang on the same underlying event — same league week, same election, same asset. Capped at 10% of bankroll each.结果由同一底层事件决定的一组市场——同联赛同周、同一选举、同一标的。单个 cluster 上限为总资金的 10%。
The pool's loss as price moves from the opening price toward the true outcome — paid out to informed traders along the way.价格从开盘价向真实结果收敛的过程中池子产生的亏损——沿途付给了知情交易者。
The days between market close and oracle payout, when capital is locked but earning nothing. 2–5 days cuts a 7-day market's ROI by ~30%.市场关闭到预言机赔付之间的天数——资金被锁定但零收益。2–5 天能让 7 天盘的 ROI 打七折。
External bookmaker odds with the margin stripped out — the reference anchor for every opening price.去掉庄家抽水后的外部赔率——所有开盘定价的参考锚。
Realized fees as a share of the theoretical fee × turnover. Listing KPI: at least 0.6.实际收到的手续费占理论值（费率 × 换手）的比例。上架 KPI 要求不低于 0.6。
A scheduled change to the trading fee partway through a market's life. Buy-side fees convert at (1 − price), so a late hike mostly lands on sellers.在市场生命周期中按预定时点切换费率。买入侧手续费按 (1 − 价格) 折算，后期提费主要落在卖出端。
The 8–10 markets that decide the whole P&L — marquee sports, contested politics, crypto monthlies.决定整体损益的 8–10 个市场——焦点赛事、胶着政治盘、加密月度盘。
The minimum acceptable APR on locked capital. A market can be profitable and still fail the hurdle.锁定资金可接受的最低年化收益率。一个市场可以盈利但仍达不到门槛。
Trades made on real information. Fee-immune by construction, and the source of all inventory loss.基于真实信息的交易。按机制几乎不缴费，且是全部库存亏损的来源。
Pre-committed delisting rules checked at days 30, 60 and 90 — turnover floors and one-directional-flow caps.在第 30、60、90 天检查的预承诺下架规则——换手率下限与单向流占比上限。
The 70–80 filler markets that exist to fill the board. Median lifetime volume of a tail sports event: about $7.4k.用来充实目录的 70–80 个市场。体育长尾盘的中位生命周期交易量仅约 $7.4k。
Retail round-trip trading driven by entertainment rather than information — the only flow the fee actually monetizes.出于娱乐而非信息的散户往返交易——手续费唯一真正能赚到的流。
The probability the pool quotes at seeding. The most-resourced function in the operation: a 0.30 open resolving toward 0.85 burns 53.5% of seed.铺仓时池子报出的初始概率。整个运营中投入最重的职能：0.30 开盘、0.85 收敛会烧掉 53.5% 的种子。
The mechanism that reports the real-world outcome on-chain and triggers settlement.把真实世界结果上报到链上并触发结算的机制。
A matching engine where traders quote each other directly. Zero inventory risk for the operator — the scalable revenue line.交易者直接互相报价撮合的引擎。运营方零库存风险——可规模化的收入线。
The first 10–20% of seed deployed to test a new market before committing full size.全量铺仓前先放入的 10–20% 测试仓位。
The final determination of the outcome and redemption of winning shares. Wording templates and dispute reserves live here.对结果的最终判定与中奖份额的兑付。措辞模板与争议准备金都属于这一环节。
A buy plus a later sell — pays the fee twice. The unit of monetizable volume.一买一卖的完整来回——缴两次手续费。可变现交易量的基本单位。
Capital deposited to open the pool, sized at 0.5–1× expected daily volume — accounted for as paid marketing with a measurable cost.开池注入的资金，规模为预期日交易量的 0.5–1 倍——按"有可计量成本的付费获客"记账。
Where the price ends up just before resolution — how certain the outcome becomes. The single biggest driver of convergence loss.结算前价格的最终位置——结果变得多确定。收敛损失最大的单一驱动因素。
Daily volume divided by pool size. The variable that decides whether fees beat losses.日交易量除以池子规模。决定手续费能否跑赢亏损的核心变量。
Self-dealing volume farmed for incentives. Statistically identical to profitable noise — which is why incentive volume never counts toward seeding stats.为薅激励而自买自卖的交易量。在数据上与盈利噪声完全相同——所以激励量永远不计入铺仓统计。
An automated liquidity pull when the forecast-vs-price gap exceeds 15 points. It only stops future convergence — the accrued loss is sunk.预测终价与现价差超过 15 点时自动撤池。它只能阻止未来的收敛——已发生的亏损是沉没成本。
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